Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
